It is a million dollar question now. Can Indian economy be revived?
The entire india is expecting answer for this with utmost curiosity from the date of announcement of the 2014 election results. People were made to believe Modi means growth. As projected the champion of growth has become the prime minister of India. Even the most educated has voted for him. To be frank there was no other option left for the people of India except voting for him after he and his party reduced the hindutuva rhetoric and started focussing to talk on Growth and development. When there is a need to generate more than 10 million jobs every year there was no other option left out for the common man except believing this mantra and go behind them and bet.
What is really happening around us?
From 1947 from the day we got independence we were forced to open our market to the outside world. But our business community didn't. They didn't do that because they were not rich enough to compete with the foreign business men who were already grown well then. If they would have opened our markets to foreign capital as soon as we attained Independence, all our businesses would have gone into the hands of foriegn business men who were having the capacity to buy/run any business by investing any amount of capital in which our men were lagging behind.So our business community inorder to safeguard their interest they decided to block foreign capital. Blocking them had helped the Indian businessmen to establish themselves very richer by exploiting unintteruptedly the indian common man without anyone questioning them. In due course of time these business community has grown very rich.
But in the case of the "common man" the story was different. Like china in today's senerio Indian commonman would have started to grow 60 years back if our markets would have been opened to foreign investments. The common man life would have improved to a greater extent because many would have entered into mutinational companies and earned a desent salary.
If that would have happened a vast population would have come out of agriculture and entered into the working class category and become salaried employees. The working class would have enjoyed a longer period of sustained growth if this process of allowing foreign investment would have been allowed long back. Also through this more people would have been educated and population growth would have been controlled to some extent. Because of the decision of not allowing the foreign capital in Indian soil after independence even today a large number of Indian people are still living under the unorganised sector. Thus in the case of the common man he has lost a lot.
Again coming back to the Indian business community, what these fatty Indian business men did to the common man?
In order to grow fast and bigger the Indian business community protected the indian markets from foreign investments and controlled the market. Since very less number of capitalist controlled the vast number of Indian population the growth was very slow for the common man. As soon as the indian business community grew bigger and gained the confidence to compete with the foreign business men they started to open the indian market to the foreign businesses and inturn got the rights to expand their indian businesses to international business.This started slowly from 1985 onwards.
From 1990 globalisation has opened the flood gate of foreign capital into India. Huge amount flowed into various industries of our country.There were hectic economical activities in the urban areas through out the country.This time a section of common man who were deprived of this opportunity for a long time made use of this opportunity and grew well. Yes along with the growth of the business community this time there was growth in the camp of the common man side also. But this growth was short lived. Since we opened the market in the tail end of the game we had little time for the above said growth. Many countries had opened their markets much earlier. By the time our capitalist allowed to open the market almost every country had entered in this game and grown well. For example countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Philiphines, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, China etc., opened their markets much earlier. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and East european countries also opened along with India. Soon within a span of 15 years time the honeymoon period of globalisation has started to wane off.
Now at pesent the entire world market has been swallowed by globalisation and there is no new markets available which is untaped. So economy has taken a reverse trend. Economy is slowing down. New jobs are not being created in large numbers. Unemployment is rising, Export is coming down.
What will happen then?
I expect there will be over production and stagnation will show its ugly face. To cut the production cost and stay in the market the capitalist will tend to go for rampant automation which will further lead to large scale unemployment.
This is the present trend. This is also a science. Manmohan Singh or Congress is not responsible for this state of affiar. The fact is Capitalism has done its best. The once progressive and revolutionary system has served it best for humanity. Long ago it has lost its revolutionary charactor and become a reactionary system. Modi nor anybody can change this scientific historical events. It is time for humans to think about what next?
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